Poll: Campaign brings Republican Party to pole position and consolidates Heritage Party

Today, European Friends of Armenia publishes the results of its poll titled Last Assessment of Pre-Electoral Armenia. This TNS opinion supervised poll with an error margin of ±2,4% was subject to extensive quality controls and conducted by IPSC and EuFoA. The fieldwork with 1600 face-to-face interviews in all regions (marzes) of Armenia took place between 17 and 22 April 2012.
While the campaign period is on-going and can still bring changes, the poll reveals some clear movements as we approach Election Day. Between the two leading parties, Prosperous Armenia remains stable (raw data with “Don’t know” and “refuse to answer”: 26,0%, valid responses: 32,6%) whereas the Republican Party passes to the first place (raw: 33,3%, valid: 40,6%). Among the opposition parties, Heritage gains most strongly (raw: 4%, valid: 6,5%). The ANC, who decided to run as an electoral bloc and hence requires 7% to move into the National Assembly, appears to be stable (raw: 2,9%, valid: 4,3 %), but EuFoA believes that the ANC may be underrated in polling, as supporters of radical opposition parties often refuse to participate in polls.
“From all the data we have seen and the trends we analysed, I personally believe that it is quite likely that all four smaller parties will pass into the National Assembly. We are proud that our poll also shows the motivations for voting, the quality and methods of campaigning, and even the likely seat distribution in the new National Assembly – including most of the direct majoritarian seats.” comments Dr Michael Kambeck, EuFoA’s Secretary General.

EuFoA provides this poll as non-Armenian and therefore non-partisan NGO. To ensure the highest level of independence and quality, this poll has been entirely supervised by the renowned international polling company TNS opinion. “This poll was conducted in line with international standards providing for very reliable data” says Dr Steve Schwarzer, Methodology and Statistics Manager at TNS opinion, Brussels. TNS opinion supervised all steps of this poll, meaning that not only was the methodology agreed with IPSC but also the fieldwork was monitored and the data processing was carefully checked.

 

EuFoA has commissioned the poll for several reasons. In particular we want to:

  • Raise public awareness about the elections, issues important for the people, and public attitudes towards politics, political parties and their leaders.
  • Compare the results of the poll with those of our “benchmark polls”, commissioned by EuFoA in October 2010 and in March 2012.
  • Contribute to a more meaningful debate, based on political content more than party political propaganda or myths.
  • Increase public transparency and trust in a realistic picture of political life in Armenia.
  • Increase pressure for a good technical conduct of the elections by providing comparative data for the assessments of international observers.

 

The complete poll report can be found in Armenian and in English on our website at http://www.eufoa.org/en/publications

 

 

EuFoA is happy to provide commentary or background analysis in English, German, French, Italian, Polish, Russian and Armenian. Members of the Europe-Armenia Advisory Council may also be available for comments; for enquiries please contact our secretariat.
High resolution picture material is always available on our website and upon request. It is free to use with a reference “Copyright: www.eufoa.org”.

 

 

Background on the organisers:

TNS (http://www.tnsglobal.com), is the world leader in opinion research and custom/ad hoc research, has wholly owned subsidiaries or majority shareholding in companies in over 70 countries, with more than 150 offices across five continents. They provide market measurement, analysis and insight in over 110 countries. Their objective is to supply market and opinion research, applying the strictest technical standards through high-quality services and property-owned products. TNS Opinion’s expertise in the field of political and social research and opinion polling is founded on more than 35 years of experience, expressed notably through their work on the Standard Eurobarometer, the largest general public opinion polling contract in the world, which they conduct on behalf of the European Commission. TNS Opinion, in its capacity as a co-ordination center for opinion research, has undertaken numerous public opinion surveys in Europe, Africa and other regions of the world, covering different target groups, ranging from general public to elite surveys and business leaders and using different methodologies, such as face-to-face, telephone or online interviewing.

 

IPSC – Institute for Political and Sociological Consulting (www.ipsc.am) is a research institute in Armenia, specialized in sociological surveys through qualitative and quantitative methods, marketing researches and consulting. By 2012, IPSC has implemented over 90 surveys in the fields of politics, education, election monitoring, healthcare, marketing, etc. covering Yerevan, all urban and more than 80% of rural communities in Armenia, having interviewed about 155,000 respondents as of February 2012. IPSC designs, organises, conducts and analyses various types of Opinion Polls, Focus Group Discussions, In-Depth Interviews, Evaluation Surveys, Expert Interviews, Participatory Observations as well as surveys using advanced technologies such as Online Polls, CATI and CAPI.

 

EuFoA – European Friends of Armenia (www.EuFoA.org) is a recognised and registered non-governmental, non-profit organisation founded in Brussels as an AISBL (Association Internationale Sans But Lucratif) and operating mainly from there across Europe since May 2009. EuFoA seeks to build bridges between Armenian and European decision makers in the fields of politics, business and culture, and support Armenia’s further integration into European political, economic, and social structures. EuFoA’s work is dedicated to improving mutual understanding and to promote co-operation. Our goals include encouraging people to people contacts between key members of civil society, raising public awareness of Europe in Armenia, as well as raising awareness of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh in Europe.

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